Pending sales skyrocket over 40 percent as prices decline

From MAAR:

Minneapolis, Minnesota (October 10, 2008) – Buyers flocked to the Twin Cities housing market in September to take advantage of attractive home prices and a sunsetting federal loan program, according to the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) based on data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.

There were 4,036 pending sales in September, which represented a whopping 42.2 percent increase over September 2007's mark of 2,839. Closed sales, too, were up dramatically—34.9 percent higher for the same time period comparison. The last time there was a year-over-year pending sales increase even close to this large was in March of 1998 when the increase over March of 1997 was 38.6 percent.

"There really are some incredible buying opportunities out there and this is the surest sign yet," said Kevin Knudsen, MAAR President. "But we also need to keep in mind that September of last year was extremely slow, which makes these figures pop a little more."

Also adding to the influx of September buyers was "last call" activity before the October 1 dissolution of the FHA-sponsored seller-funded downpayment assistance program, which was the last of a dying breed of zero-down loan programs remaining on the market.

A hearty 41.6 percent of September's pending sales were lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales, up from 17.5 percent in September 2007. The increased market share of these bargain-priced properties led to further declines in home prices. The overall September median sales price of $189,900 fell from last year by 15.6 percent. Lender-mediated homes posted a median sales price of $146,000, a decrease of 11.5 percent from last year. Traditional properties had a September median sales price of $212,500, a decrease of 8.6 percent.

Due to the decline in home prices and another downtick in mortgage rates, the October Housing Affordability Index jettisoned upward from last month to 159, which is 21.4 percent higher than this time last year, and back up at extremely healthy levels following a few years of unsustainably low affordability. While challenging for sellers, this means a more accessible market for potential home buyers, thus the resurgence in sales activity.

"With all the uncertainties in the economy, it's hard to predict right now if the sales upturn will continue," said Steve Havig, MAAR President-Elect. "But the affordability and inventory choice picture is still very attractive, which bodes well for our long-term picture."

Party Time Continues!

Here's the latest from MAAR:

The September sales party continued for the week ending September 27, as pending sales jumped by a whopping 58.4 percent from 2007. The extravagant nature of these sales increases will not likely continue through the fall, given the current economic uncertainties and an expected downward trend in consumer confidence. New listings also increased for the same time period, bumping up 9.9 percent from the same week last year—the first year-over-year increase in new listings since early July. Total inventory remains significantly down; there are roughly 3,000 fewer homes for sale now than at this time in 2007.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for several important metrics. The Supply-Demand Ratio (SDR)—a measurement of the number of homes for sale for each projected buyer—stood at 9.79 for October, down slightly from last October. The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale dipped slightly to 92.2 percent in September, while the Average Days on Market Until Sale increased to 145, up 2.7 percent from last September.

September Song

Her's the latest from MAAR:

September home sales in the Twin Cities housing market continue to post huge gains over 2007. For the week ending September 20, there were 42.8 percent more pending sales than the same week last year. Over the last seven weeks, there have been 5,866 signed purchase agreements, up more than 1,500 units from the 4,363 posted during this period in 2007. However, here are some items to keep in mind that temper the good news:

September 2007 was a particularly slow month, which inflates the appearance of this year's increase. Current sales levels are on par with September 2006.
Lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales are a growing part of the market. For the most recent week, 39.1 percent of pending sales were lender-mediated, compared to 13.4 percent for the same week last year.
Home sales in September of this year may be temporarily propped up by buyers taking advantage of the final days of the FHA seller-funded downpayment assistance program, which disappears on October 1.
The supply of homes for sale remains lower than last year—7.8 percent down from the same time last year for the most recent reporting week.