"Whoa, we're halfway there; whoa-oh, livin' on a prayer!"

Here's the latest from MAAR (And Bon Jovi):



Bringing our market back to balance involves a two-step process: supply needs to draw down, demand needs to bounce back up. It's as simple as that. So far, 2008 is proving to be the year that we can confidently check the first item off this list, as the number of homes for sale continues to dwindle relative to one year ago. There are currently 33,219 homes for sale in the Twin Cities region, down a hearty 4.9 percent from one year ago, a year-over-year figure which should continue to drop in the months ahead. New listings for the week ending June 7 were down 13.9 percent from a year ago, while pending sales declined by a smaller 5.3 percent for the same time period comparison.

All in all, we're halfway there: supply is coming down, but demand is only flattening, not coming back up just yet. Regardless, the signs are encouraging.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for our Housing Affordability Index (HAI) and Months Supply of Inventory. The HAI dropped slightly to 149 due to another increase in interest rates, while inventory increased to 10.4 months of supply. This means that it will take 10.4 months to sell through our current inventory, should buyer activity remain constant and no homes new to the market are listed for sale.

Pending Sales Are Up 4.9 Percent!

Here's the latest from MAAR

Sellers in the Twin Cities housing market continue to cut back on their output, while simultaneously we appear to have finally found the bottom for buyer activity. New listings for the week ending May 31 were a healthy 23.0 percent behind the same week in 2007, a drop of 522 units. For the same time period, pending sales increased by 4.9 percent over last year—the largest year-over-year increase in 117 weeks, and only the third recorded increase in that time. So even though home sales are still low by historical standards, they’re not falling any further for the time being.

This week’s edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features update figures for two metrics. Days on Market Until Sale increased slight to 159, up 27.9 percent from a year ago, and Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale increased slightly to 92.6 percent. Expect the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale to show further increases during the summer months, when sellers are more likely to receive offers that are closer to their asking prices than in winter.

Have we hit bottom, yet?

Here's the latest from MAAR:

Our housing market is forming up; we can now see both the floor and ceiling. For the second consecutive week, pending sales activity in the Twin Cities market is flat compared to last year, dropping just 1.4 percent from a year ago for the week ending May 24. For the same time period comparison, new listings declined 6.4 percent and total listing supply actually declined, an anomaly for the spring market.

With sales halting their downward decline, new listings still sluggish and overall inventory leveled, the trends are coalescing around a clear picture: we have found the floor for buyer demand while hitting the ceiling of seller supply. Being at or near the bottom of the downward shift is certainly positive news, but keep in mind that the long upward climb out of our nadir will be gradual and measured.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features an updated Supply-Demand Ratio (SDR) figure for June 2008 of 8.23. This means that there are roughly 8.23 homes on the market for each buyer during the month of June, up 9.3 percent from June 2007.

First Time in 10 Months!

Here's the latest from MAAR:

For the first time in ten months—and only the second time in the last two years—the number of purchase agreements (pending sales) signed for our most recent weekly activity set was slightly ahead of one year ago. There were 714 purchase agreements signed for the week ending May 17, which is 1.7 percent higher than one year ago. A hearty 27.5 percent of these sales were mediated by a financial institution as a foreclosure or short sale.

Over the last three months, the number of pending sales is still down 10.3 percent compared to 2007, and the number of new listings is down 13.9 percent for the same time period. The total number of homes for sale is 700 units behind this time last year—a year-over-year fall of 2.0 percent, a gap which should only widen as sellers continue to cut back on new listings.

X Marks the Spot

Here's the latest from MAAR:

"X" marks the spot on your typical pirate treasure map, but it can also
be an intrepid signifier of a changing market. This edition of the MAAR
Weekly Market Activity Report shows off a big, bold, red "X" on our
"Last Three Months Inventory for Sale" graph (page 4). The diverging
trend lines are a marked indicator that the supply of homes has been
held at bay relative to recent years for the past several months. For the
week ending May 10, the number of new listings was 15.5 percent
behind last year. With new listings still sluggish, expect this trend to
continue.
Pending sales were down 5.3 percent compared to a year ago. Yes,
weekly pending sales are still battling to surpass last year's numbers,
but we hope to mark an uplifting "X" on our "Last Three Months
Weekly Pending Sales" (page 3) treasure map later this year.

Hope Springs Eternal for Twin Cities Real Estate

Here's the latest Weekly Market Report from MAAR:

In Minnesota, warmer weather typically equates to listing increases. But compared to previous years, the run-up to the 2008 summer selling season in the Twin Cities housing market has been meek. The number of new listings for the week ending May 3 was 16.6 percent behind the same time last year—the ninth consecutive week of decline relative to a year ago. Buyer activity is also slower. Over the last three months, pending sales are hovering around a 16 percent year-over-year decline.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for several important metrics. As the spring season begins, the Average Days on Market Until Sale decreased to 154 while the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale increased slightly to 91.7. The Housing Affordability Index decreased to 151, due to slight seasonal increases in sales price and interest rates. Finally, the Months Supply of Inventory increased to 10.2 months; a 5- to 6-month supply rate is considered indicative of a balanced market.

The Housing Crisis Is Over!

It is...according to the Wall Street Journal.

Also, good news for Minneapolis Real Estate Investors: FREE MONEY!

Check it out HERE.

Ring the bell?

Here's the latest from MAAR:

Ring the bell, sound the alarms, shout from the mountaintops: the number of homes for sale in the Twin Cities region as of today is less than the number for sale at this point last year, a new benchmark which marks an encouraging sign that the market is in an early stage of recovery.

This is the first time since MAAR began tracking inventory figures that we have been able to show a year-over-year decline in listing supply. There are currently 32,448 residential properties for sale, a decline of 134 units from this time in 2007. With sellers still holding back on putting their homes on the market (new listings are down 11.4 percent from last year over the last three months), this downward year-over-year trend in inventory should continue into the summer.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features a new figure for our Supply-Demand Ratio of 7.53, which means there are approximately 7.53 homes on the market for each buyer in May— up 12.9 percent from May 2007 when the figure was 6.67.

King Me!

Here's the latest from MAAR:

For two years, home buyers in the Twin Cities housing market have behaved like medieval kings—looking down upon their vast and glistening kingdom of available homes for sale with a calm and dismissive eye, slowly selecting their properties without hurry or haste. While their reign is not yet over, there are some noticeable cracks in the walls of their castle.

Sellers are not putting homes on the market with anywhere close to the frequency with which they did the last four years. For the week ending April 19, there were only 2,152 new listings, down 19.6 percent from the same week last year. This marks the sixth week in the last seven with a double-digit percentage drop from 2007. The slowdown in buyer activity has also shown signs of abating, as the number of new purchase agreements signed for the week ending April 19 was 893, only 3 units behind the total of 896 seen this week last year. This is the second straight week of relatively flat year-over-year pending sales activity.

However, don't head out and buy that $80,000 Italian sports car you've always wanted just yet. It's important to bear in mind that:

foreclosure and short-sale activity is taking up a larger portion of our overall market activity than it did previously, which has the effect of propping these numbers up a bit, and
we're still 39.8 percent behind our 2005 sales pace at the peak of the boom cycle.
Flattening overall supply (only up 0.4 percent from this time last year) and encouraging trends in sales figures should serve as welcome signs that the market corrections we've experienced in the last two years are taking a turn. Some semblance of order may very well be restored to the "kingdom" in the next year.

For more info CLICK HERE.

Is Twin Cities Real Estate Market is Recovery Mode?

Here's the latest from MAAR

The signs are early and nascent, but there are some promising early indicators that the Twin Cities housing market is beginning to correct and pull back from its two year-beeline in the buyer's favor. While affordability, interest rates and overall supply are still attractive, home sellers are cutting back on new listings substantially in 2008.

For the week ending April 12, there were 2,156 new listings, down a full 20.1 percent from the same week last year. That's the fifth week in the last six that we've seen double-digit percentage drops from 2007 activity. Newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) are still behind last year also, posting a 3.8 percent decline.

While our market still faces a long road ahead to full recovery, the recent reduction in new supply is a positive beacon on the horizon and undoubtedly welcome news for home sellers


More info HERE.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the latest from MAAR:

Spring inventory growth remains staid in the Twin Cities housing market as the annual influx of new properties for sale has not been as rambunctious as the levels seen over the last few springs. The total number of homes for sale in the metro area currently sits at 31,615 up only 3.0 percent from the same time last year—the lowest such year-over-year increase for some years. Home sales remain relatively slow as well, with newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) from the last three months trailing the same period last year by 16.6 percent.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features an updated Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for April. The HAI fell slightly to 155 due to a seasonal increase in home prices in March but remains a healthy 16.6 percent above where it was two years ago. Softening prices, motivated sellers and a continuation of historically low interest rates have dramatically improved the affordability picture in recent months.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Recently I heard two things of interest. The first involves John McCain's proposal to fix the Housing Crisis: require Buyers to have higher down payments. To be honest, I was a bit flabbergasted by this proposal. Why would anyone want to make it even more difficult to get deals done than they already are in this market what with all the tighter lending restrictions and the already staggering market. This type of thing could be the knock out blow to Seller's out there and I, for one, hope ultimately cooler heads will prevail.

The second tidbit was the notion that has been floated around that the 3rd Quarter of this year (July-August-September) may signal the "bottom" of this current market downturn.

So while both of these remain to be seen, it should be a very interesting fall!

Meanwhile...


Here's the latest from MAAR...

The Twin Cities housing market is showing early signs of entering a positive phase of correction. The number of new listings entering the market for the week ending March 29 was 14.8 percent behind the same week last year, the fourth consecutive week of double-digit declines relative to last year. Unfortunately, pending sales remain lackadaisical (down 15.9 percent for the same time period comparison), so the total inventory of homes for sale continues to exhibit decelerating growth this spring season—an encouraging momentum change in our shifting supply-demand balance.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for several key metrics. In March, the Days on Market Until Sale held steady at 165 and the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale dipped slightly to 91.0—both indicators of the continued advantage the buyer holds in this market. The April Months Supply of Inventory increased to 9.6 months, up 23.9 percent from this time last year. A market that's balanced between buyers and sellers would have roughly a 5- to 6-month supply of homes for sale. We haven't been there since 2005.


Click here for this week's full report. Visit Market Info for reports as far as the eye can see.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

A note: my personal schedule has been very hectic over the past few weeks, anecdotal evidence as it may be it nonetheless may serve as an optimistic counterpoint to the consistent (although indisputable) Market Reports I reprint here from the Minneapolis Association of Realtors.

I mention this not only as a way of explaining (apologizing) for my lack of posts and the innovative content you have come to expect from A Realtor you can Relate to but also as a way of of saying to the Sellers: "There will be brighter days ahead."

In the coming days I hope to bring you more content and strategies that Buyers AND Sellers can use to navigate the current market.

Make no mistake, gentle reader, There Will Be More Run-On Sentences!

In the meantime here is

...the latest from MAAR:

Vamoosh! Home sellers in the Twin Cities are continuing their great disappearing act, with new listings on the market in 2008 sitting far below last year's rate. Over the last three months, there have been almost 2,500 fewer listings put on the market than there were a year ago—a drop of 9.5 percent.

Inventory is still more plentiful than ever. Despite the pullback, we still have a record high number of houses on the market for this time of year. So what's the takeaway here? Well, if we look closer, we can see that the inventory gap between now and one year ago is closing, and closing hard. We've gone from being up 12.6 percent from a year ago to only 5.5 percent up in the last 12 weeks.

Gut check: We must keep perspective on the challenging environment that sellers still face, despite the softening competition. The number of signed purchase agreements (pending sales) for the last three months is 17.7 percent behind the same period a year ago. There's fewer of everything.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the Latest from MAAR:

Potential home buyers waiting for even more new inventory to hit the market may be waiting a long time. For the week ending March 15, there were almost 300 fewer properties put on the market in the Twin Cities than during the same week in 2007—a decline of 12.0 percent. And the number of new listings on the market in the last three months is 6.9 percent behind the same time one year ago. So while total inventory remains high, the frenzied peak of seller activity appears to be behind us.

The number of newly signed purchase agreements jumped significantly from the previous week; and for the same time period comparison last year was down only 8.9 percent. While this is a positive indication that buyers may be beginning to recognize the tremendous opportunities available, we are by no means out of the woods yet. Let's at least hope we're out of the snow.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the latest from MAAR:

Still waiting! Buyer activity remains relatively lethargic in the Twin Cities
housing market. For the week ending March 8, the number of new
purchase agreements signed was 682, behind the same time last year
by 18.7 percent. Despite the deluge of properties available, rapidly
improving affordability, attractive interest rates and motivated sellers,
buyers appear to be unwilling or unable to take advantage of this
incredibly attractive buyer's market.

Click HERE for the full report! (pdf)

Buyers spring for falling home prices

Housing affordability at its highest point in five years

Minneapolis, Minnesota (March 12, 2008) – Aggressive seller pricing and steadily improving buying opportunities continue to be the hallmarks of the 2008 Twin Cities housing market so far, according to the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) based on data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.
The substantial corrective price declines first seen in January were further fleshed out in February, as the median sales price for the month of $195,060 is a decrease of 12.5 percent from the same month last year. With builders, banks and traditional home sellers facing a challenging environment, they have priced their product to move. And, at least in February, prospective home buyers are taking notice of the opportunities available. Pending and closed sales posted relatively robust figures in February compared to the tepid showings of the recent past. There were 3,087 purchase agreements signed and 2,009 sales closed—down only 10.2 and 13.6 percent from last year, respectively. This is a lesser decline than seen in recent months.

“It feels like the pendulum is finally starting to make the big swing,” said Kevin Knudsen, MAAR President. “The price corrections we need are working alongside great inventory selection. And the recent FHA loan limit increase is going to have a dramatic and positive effect on buyers searching for secure financing.”

The MAAR Housing Affordability Index (HAI) shot up eight points from last month to 157. That’s good for 16 points in the last two months and the healthiest HAI figure since 2003. Additionally, the number of homes for sale continues to post record levels despite a drop-off in new listing supply. At the end of February, there were 29,842 homes for sale, which amounts to 8.72 homes for each buyer expected during the upcoming month.

“This is arguably the most attractive buying environment we’ve seen in the Twin Cities in a decade,” said Knudsen.

A note to those scouting the market for rock-bottom prices: The decline in median sales price is just as much a function of what kinds of properties are being sold as it is a slashing of listing prices. According to MAAR’s February Housing Supply Outlook, there recently has been a large increase in the sales of properties priced under $150,000, which does have the effect of skewing the overall median sales price downward.

“By no means do we want to sugarcoat the news of declining prices,” said Steve Havig, MAAR President-Elect. “We have to keep perspective as to what these prices mean and recognize that they represent the kind of correction that we need.”

Established in 1887, the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services, research and education on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate professionals and the public. With more than 9,000 members, MAAR is one of the 25 largest local REALTOR® associations in the nation and serves the
Twin Cities 13-county metro area and western Wisconsin.

Weekly Market Activity Report

Here's the latest from MAAR:

The number of new listings on the market has been relatively small so far in 2008. Over the last eight weeks, there have been roughly 1,200 fewer listings put on the market than during the same eight weeks in 2007—a decline of 6.7 percent. The decline in purchase agreement activity during the same period is on a more extreme decline, however—falling by 17.8 percent for the same time period comparison.

What buyers need to hear about is the significant improvement in affordability. Despite an increase in mortgage rates, the Housing Affordability Index (HAI) shot up dramatically for March to 157, the highest figure in five years! The HAI increased thanks to a decline in sales prices in February and increased consumer income. The home buying environment has been getting exponentially more attractive with each passing month, which is great news for those waiting on a real estate market rebound.

This week's MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for several important metrics. Days on Market Until Sale held steady at 165 in February, an increase of 12.2 percent from last year. The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale increased slightly to 91.1 percent, and should continue to rise in the spring months as it does each year.

Are Foreclosure Numbers Inflated?

Here's some interesting info making the rounds this week on the current state of Foreclosures:

If you listen to the news, you'd be lead to believe that a large portion of American homeowners are foreclosing on their homes, but is this really true? Are we being given accurate accounts of the foreclosure rates? In fact, according to an article in the January - February 2008 issue of Personal Real Estate Investor, the numbers being reported are grossly misleading. Turns out that "scoop beats accuracy".

Foreclosures are reported based on the number of filings. A filing is simply "the process of filing any legal document that marks a stage in the process from delinquency and NOI to the far from inevitable seizure, sale, and loss of a home by the delinquent borrower." In some states there are up to 2 filings and in others up to 3 filings. Then the number of filings is multiplied by the number of loans on the home. Therefore, if you have 3 filings and 2 loans on your home, that foreclosure is counted SIX TIMES! RealtyTrac, a company known for counting and tracking foreclosures, is working on a system to be more accurate. Rather than count filings, they have a way to count just addresses. This new method has decreased the number of published foreclosures by upwards of 30%.

In addition to the miscounted filings, there are the properties that never result in full foreclosure and seizure by the bank. These foreclosures either end in the homeowner coming to an agreement with the bank, or a third party sale, or the borrower simply finding a way to make their payments. These situations aren't deducted from the original number reported. In fact, only 40% of homes that begin the process of foreclosure actually end up in seizure by the bank.

The facts are:

• More than 94.4 percent of all mortgages in the U.S. are current (per the Mortgage Bankers Association, 12/06/07).
• 
  4.9 percent of the total mortgage market is subprime loans with ARMs and of those 14.82 percent are in some stage of foreclosure. That's 15 percent of 5 percent?
• 
  The net effect as of 12/06/07 is that .078 percent of all homes in the U.S. have gone to absolute foreclosure. This is still less than a rounding error.

Needless to say, while foreclosures are up from past years, they are not as common as we are all lead to believe. Of course, the "scoop" supports all the news regarding the "dire housing" market, but the truth is comforting.

"America, We are being Misled", by Andrew Waite from Personal Real Estate Investor.
If you would like to read the entire article, you can contact me and request a copy.

GOOD NEWS! FHA RAISES LOAN LIMITS!

HUD STATUTORY LOAN LIMITS FOR MINNESOTA
AS OF March 5, 2008

11 County Metro Other Counties
1-Unit $365,000* $271,050

2-Unit $467,250 $347,000

3-Unit $564,800 $419,400

4-Unit $701,900 $521,250

Thanks to Randi Livon at RMG for this update!

This may be just a temporary raise for 2008 so if you are interested you need to act fast!

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the latest from MAAR:

The greatest enemy of progress is not stagnation, but false progress. – Sydney J. Harris (1917–86), famed columnist

New listings for the week ending February 23 posted 1,832 units, down 10.1 percent from the same week in 2007. Signed purchase agreements (pending sales) declined from last year by 15.9 percent for the same timeframe comparison, posting 635 units. Despite the general decline in seller activity, the total number of homes for sale is ahead of this time last year by 9.8 percent. Also, this week's Weekly Market Activity Report features a new March Supply-Demand Ratio of 8.72 houses per buyer, up 38.4 percent from March 2007.

Looking for a silver lining to the weekly litany of grimacing news? Well, the seemingly endless swell in the growth of homes for sale has steadily declined. The Supply-Demand Ratio is the lowest it's been since June 2007. Housing affordability is at its highest point since 2004. And we're receiving anecdotal evidence of increased buyer traffic beyond seasonal norms over the past few weeks.

It ain't all bad news, folks. The word on the sheet may not yet match the work on the sheet, specifically pending sales, but ample supply, lower interest rates, weakening median prices and healthy affordability are all historical buyer opt-ins.