StarTribune Asks: What Sold Your House

In this challenging market, everyone is looking for whatever edge they can get. The Strib is asking readers to submit their stories:

In today's challenging housing market, sellers can use a little luck. Do you have a selling superstition such as burying a statue of St. Joseph? Have other techniques brought you a buyer? What's worked for you? If you're willing to share your story with a reporter, send a note including your phone number to Lynn Underwood at Lunderwood@startribune.com.

When they come in I will print a link here. Also, feel free to email me YOUR Selling Stories to tjlarson@edinarealty.com.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the Latest from MAAR:

With mercury dropping, snow falling, lips cracking, wet hair freezing, and cars stalling, February has mostly been an exercise in old-fashioned winter hibernation for those of us brave (or foolish) enough to live in the Twin Cities. The weather is by no means the only explanation for the lackluster showing of area home buyers—the uncertainty in the credit markets and dampened consumer confidence are obviously playing their own crucial roles—but it certainly isn't helping. That's why the uptick in temperatures seen in recent days is a welcome sight for home buyers, sellers and real estate brokers alike.

New listings for the week ending February 16 posted 1,859 units, down 8.3 percent from the same week in 2007. Signed purchase agreements (pending sales) declined from last year by 17.8 percent for the same time period comparison, posting 624 units. Despite the general decline in seller activity, the total number of homes for sale is ahead of this time last year by 12.1 percent.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Same Old Same Old...

Here's the Latest from MAAR:

As 2008 progresses, the picture remains relatively static. New listings are
holding steady with last year's pace, home sales remain sluggish and the total
inventory of houses for sale is at record levels—all of which points to a market in
the buyer's favor. Yes, it's been a challenge to think of fresh ways to say the
same thing every week: Sales down, inventory up. buyer's market, interest rates
low, prices low, affordability high, buy now!

"You can sense a change in the air."

This press release from MAAR really sums up the current market:

Buoyed by buyer advantage and seller motivation, Twin Cities home prices continue their downward slope, resulting in improved affordability, according to the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) based on data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc.

The unignorable and ignoble news is that the January 2008 median sales price of $205,000 is a decrease of 8.9 percent from January 2007. While this is challenging news to a home owner banking on short-term value returns on their property, it's a hopeful sign of good times ahead for those who believe that the market needs accessibility before it can truly improve.

"In simplified terms, things need to go down before they can get up," said Kevin Knudsen, 2008 MAAR President. "Affordability will help kick-start the rebound. It's elementary supply and demand."

The MAAR Housing Affordability Index (HAI) shot up eight points from last month to 149, the healthiest HAI figure since 2004. Further, the number of homes for sale has tripled in the same time, creating what is arguably now the most attractive market for buyers this decade.

Despite the opportunities, home buyers remain relatively inactive. Newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) posted 2,562 units in January, 20.7 percent behind one year ago. Similarly, closed sales declined by 21.3 percent for the same time period comparison.

Slowed sales means slowed inventory absorption, and the number of homes for sale continues to post record levels. At the end of January, there were 28,166 homes for sale, which amounts to 10.02 homes for each buyer expected during the upcoming month.

The number of new listings on the market is declining, posting 8,322 units in January. This is down 6.8 percent from January 2007, as sellers and builders continue to cut down on adding new supply.

"You can sense a change in the air," said Steve Havig, 2008 MAAR President-Elect. "Needed market corrections are accelerating, which will eventually bring buyers out of the woodwork."

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the latest on the Market from MAAR:

With both the temperature and the region's home prices dropping, home buyers who are willing to brave the harsh and cold meteorological landscape are finding the home buying environment quite warm and welcoming. The MAAR Housing Affordability Index (HAI), which measures how affordable Twin Cities housing is to its residents, jumped in February to 149—the highest level in nearly four years—thanks to continued declines in mortgage rates, a smorgasbord of homes to pick from and a seller psychology that is motivated to move and ready to negotiate.

For the week ending February 2, the number of new units on the market was 1,930—a full 10.2 percent behind the same week in 2007. The decline in listings was met by an even more hearty decline in signed purchase agreements, as pending sales fell by 28.7 percent for the same time period.

Besides the HAI, this week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for several other metrics. In January, the Days on Market Until Sale increased to 165 and the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale fell to 90.9—both indicators of the continued advantage the buyer holds in this market. The February Months Supply of Inventory increased to 8.9 months, up 37.5 percent from this time last year. A market that's balanced between buyers and sellers would have roughly a 5- to 6-month supply of homes for sale.


Full report HERE.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

LISTINGS UP, PENDING SALES DOWN, HUT HUT HUT!

Here's the latest from MAAR:

With the new year in full swing and the unofficial national holiday of Super Bowl XLII now under our pizza-and-beer-engorged belts, the number of homes for sale in the Twin Cities housing market is beginning its annual ascent. With just over 28,000 units on the market as of this morning, inventory is 11.8 percent higher than this time last year—a new record for this time of year. For the week ending January 26, there were 528 purchase agreements signed (pending sales), a decrease of 16.9 percent from the same week in 2007.

The net result of growing supply meeting cooled demand is a market titled in favor of the buyer—a dynamic we can clearly see in our new February 2008 Supply-Demand Ratio (SDR) of 10.02. This means that there are 10.02 houses on the market for every buyer expected this month, up 36.9 percent from February 2007—a tougher environment for sellers.

Consider the flip side of this coin. With a bounty of inventory to peruse, historically low interest rates, improving affordability and motivated sellers, this is truly one of the best times to buy real estate in recent history. Click here for this week's report.

For a closer look at how our changing market is affecting your specific community, take a look at "The 100," our localized market research tool. It offers free monthly market updates for 125 unique locales within the Twin Cities market. Year-end 2007 numbers are now available for each of these areas. Click here to access "The 100."

For a full, detailed look at how changing supply-demand dynamics are affecting various price ranges and property types in our regional housing market, take a look at our new January 2008 Housing Supply Outlook.

When Will We Know the Market Hit Bottom?

This question comes up all the time and for good reason. Buyers want to know if they are buying at the right time or if they should wait until the market bottoms out. This is a pretty difficult question for anyone to answer whether they are a celebrated economist or a member of the Psychic Friends Network. When? I don't think anyone can say for certain. Perhaps later this year? Perhaps next week.

However, I did attend a very interesting seminar given by noted economist John Tuccillo where he presented a very specific formula that won't predict when this will occur but will show when it has come to pass.

That's the rub in all of this. You really only know you've hit bottom once you are no longer there. I know it seems like a bunch of mambo-jumbo but this is economics, people! It comes with the territory.

Anyway, Tucillo's take is this. There are three Signs of Recovery that you can watch for that will show the market is no longer in decline.

1. A Decline in New Listings
2. A Decline in the Days on Market
3. The Ratio of Sales Price to List Price Begins to Rise

It's pretty simple really. A decline in New Listings produced less inventory, reducing downward pressure on prices.

A decline in Days on Market shows houses are selling faster and the faster they sell the more likely the will sell closer to their List Price or in a Multiple Offer situation where Buyers try to outbid each other.

When the Sales Price to List Price ratio rises we know that Buyers are on board with what the Sellers are selling.

Tucillo said that you need about 3 straight months of this pattern to know that you are there and you can compare this month to last month, or the market a year ago, as a frame of reference.

OK so where are we right now?

1. Decline in New Listings
Looking at the latest figures from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors New Listings are down 1% over the past three months from where they were a year ago. So we are 1/3rd of the way there!

2. Decline in Days on Market
MAAR figures show we are UP 4.6% from one year ago -up to a sobering 158 Days on Market, on average, until sale.

3. The Ratio of Sales Price to List Price Begins to Rise
Right now this ratio is also in decline with homes selling for an average of 91.2% of the list price and this downward trend has been occurring since May of 2007 when it was 95.9%.

OK so, we have a ways to go but after hearing Mr. Tucillo speak I am a lot more encouraged about where we are at locally. He said we could likely see a couple more quarters of decline here but the signs of recovery will likely start to appear in the 4th quarter. He also is pretty convinced our national economy is heading for a recession but that it will be short and mild.

We'll have to see what happens...in the meantime I will continue to track these numbers so we will be able to say with confidence that we have passed the bottom.

Did I really just write that last sentence? No wonder I skipped out on Econ 101 when I was at the U!

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

The Dead of Winter...

With cold weather, high winds and relatively low consumer confidence, the Twin Cities housing market continues to experience low levels of buyer activity in January. Newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) posted 485 units sold for the week ending January 19, a decline of 19.4 percent from this time last year. For the same time period comparison, new listings held relatively steady, posting 1,877 new units on the market. Roughly half of these are re-lists that have already been placed on the market at least once in the last 12 months.

Click here for this week's stats.

For a closer look at how our changing market is affecting your specific community, take a look at "The 100," our localized market research tool. It offers free monthly market updates for 125 unique locales within the Twin Cities market. Year-end 2007 numbers are now available for each of these areas.

Interesting Discussion on MNSpeak

I always am interested in hearing different people's take on the current market and today over on MNspeak, a site I really enjoy there is a thread that is worth checking out.

In the coming weeks I hope to outline some tips and strategies I have seen as very effective for people interested in purchasing a second home for investment because the market is really becoming ripe for that kind of activity right now.

Stay tuned and stay warm!

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Here's the latest from those wacky kids at MAAR:

"Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose." – Alphonse Karr, French novelist

With the arrival of 2008, the Twin Cities housing market remained in its 2007-end holding pattern. Purchase agreements were lower and new listings held steady. For the week ending January 12, there were 4.8 percent fewer new listings on the market compared to last year at this time, while pending sales declined by 24.0 percent for the same time period. The total number of homes for sale in the region is beginning it's annual new year ascent, with 27,931 housing units on the market—up 12.2 percent from the same time last year.

This week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features an updated January 2008 figure for the Months Supply of Inventory. The figure declined sharply to 8.3 months, as it usually does at the beginning of the year following the holiday inventory drop. The figure is 42.4 percent above this time last year.

For a full, detailed look at how changing supply-demand dynamics are affecting various price ranges and property types in our regional housing market, take a look at our new January 2008 Housing Supply Outlook.

Fed Slashes Interest Rates

Here's the latest on today's rate cut which is sure to have big ramifications in the real estate market:

U.S. Treasury Secretary said this morning that an economic stimulus package is necessary and “as soon as possible”, as the global sell-off in stocks raises recessionary concerns here and abroad. Minutes before, Bank of America announced that its fourth quarter losses associated with sub-prime and CDO losses came in worse than expected at $5.28 billion, and commented firmly that credit risks remain highly elevated.

Separately, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee this morning called for an emergency, inter-meeting rate cut of 75 basis points, reducing the rate from 4.25% to 3.50%, the largest cut by the FOMC since October of 1984, and the first inter-meeting rate cut since the Fed cut rates at the post-09/11 market re-open on September 17, 2001.

The Fed has now lowered rates by 1.75 points since September 18th of last year. The cut was not a complete surprise to the markets, and came just twelve days after U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would remain “exceptionally alert and flexible.”

Banks have or will reduce the prime interest rate to 6.5% on this news, which will have a benefit impact to many credit facilities, including variable-rate home equity loans.

The Fed will meet as scheduled a week from today for a two-day meeting, and the market is still looking for additional easing by another 25 basis points, or more, as a downside risks to the economy and a recession are clearly an overarching concern.

A month ago, the market expected the Fed funds to reach 3.25 by year-end, and two weeks ago the market moved that year-end number even lower to 2.75%. Today, the futures market is looking for the Fed’s benchmark rate to be just above 2.0% by September.

The Dow at the open gapped down over 400 points, as expected, and has improved to minus 350 points just now. The ten year treasury stands at 3.54%, up 24/32s in price, and mortgage prices are up 11/32s in early trade. Obviously, mortgage rates will improve by 0.125% or more in a couple of hours when rates are updated.

Today’s rates may equal the lows set in June of 2003.

Toronto's Smallest House!!!

A client sent me this. I am not sure where it came from but I thought it was a riot and a pretty cute home actually!

TORONTO 'S SMALLEST HOUSE IS FOR SALE ! ! !

It's nothing short of a "Glorified Tent" .. or is it?


If ...
..... You live alone or with one other person (or an extremely small dog) .. or if
..... You don't have much stuff (barely more than a homeless person) . or if
..... You miss that cute little apartment you lived in while teaching English in Japan

THEN THIS IS THE PLACE FOR YOU ! !


This house, located near the intersection of Dufferin Street and Rogers
Road is believed to be Toronto's smallest house. Occupying what used
to be a driveway, i t's a one bedroom, one bathroom home that sits on a
parcel of land 7.25 feet (2.2 metres) wide and 113.67 feet (34.6 metres)
long and has an interior area of just under 300 square feet (under 28
square metres).


Here's the living room, looking towards the back ...


Here's the kitchen. Note that despite the small space,
they've managed to fit a washer and dryer into the place.





Here's the bedroom. It comes with a Murphy be d,
which is a necessity in such a space. This is what it
looks like with the Murphy Bed down



And here the bedroom with the Murphy Bed retracted:



You also get some patio space out back.
Here it is, looking towards the front of the house:



And here's the patio looking towards the back:




Here are the home's "Listed Features":

* Completely re-done top-to-bottom, front-to-back!
* Tumbled stone entrance walk
* Renovated Bath
* Renovated Kitchen with newer stove, new cabinets and new stacked washer/dryer
* Bedroom with Murphy Bedd + "Built-Ins" ... (doubles as a den)!
* Walk-out to fenced patio
* 100 Amp service
* 2 Satellite Dishes and Receiver
* Window Air Conditioner Available

THE PRICE ? ? ?

You get all this for




$179,900.00!

Foreclosures Push Down Rents

There's been a lot of talk how the market is becoming less friendly to renters. However, recent studies have shown just the opposite - and why not in the contrary, Topsy-Turvy market!

According to the National Association of Realtors, due to home owners trying to rent homes they can’t sell, rentals are abundant and prices are at bargain levels in areas hit hard by foreclosures.

Some home owners forced out by foreclosure are finding rental deals that are at "discounts of 50 percent to 70 percent off what they were paying on their mortgages," says Brenda F. Gerdes, who owns Management Specialists Inc. in Port St. Lucie, Fla.

There are 760,000 vacant condos and homes for sale nationwide beyond what the market could normally carry, in addition to a surplus of 350,000 vacant rental properties, according to Ron Witten, a Dallas-based housing analyst.

Declining employment and other signs of a possible recession don't bode well for landlords, since people who lose their jobs will resist paying higher rents or will move in with friends or family. Many displaced home owners forced out by foreclosures also are doubling up, says Mark Obrinsky, chief economist at the National Multi-Housing Council.

"Shadow inventory is coming out and competing against us for rentals," says Richard Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based real-estate company that owns 70,000 apartments. That is weakening landlords' pricing power, he says, because home owners are less concerned about getting full market value.

Meanwhile, I have seen clients closing on the sale of their new homes with interest rates at 5.5%! Bottom line: there might never be a better time to buy than right now.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Holiday Hangover?

For the second straight week, the distractions of a holiday placed the Twin Cities housing market in a holding pattern. While new listings jumped from their holiday-reduced nadir the week before, they remain 25.8 percent behind the same week last year. Newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) increased as well, but to a slighter degree than listings. Once again, the vagaries of the holiday mean these numbers have little meaning relative to the underlying market conditions.

Here's this week's numbers.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Activity in the Twin Cities housing market saw a Valley Fair-esque drop for the week ending December 29, compared to the week before. Blame Santa Claus. New listings, pending sales and total inventory all fell at least several hundred units as Twin Citizens focused on celebrating the holiday season during the 12th snowiest December on record. Due to the unique weather and the vagaries of the Christmas holiday, little meaningful context can be gleaned from the decreased numbers.

However, we can utilize some updated figures for several key market measurements in this week's edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report. The Days on Market Before Sale increased to 158. Although this is higher than December 2006 by 4.6 percent, the figure will likely start to decrease as 2008 begins and the holiday season ends. The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale fell slightly to 91.2 as buyers exerted their seasonal power during the slow December sales month. And our Supply-Demand Ratio for January fell to 10.46, which means there will be roughly 10.46 houses for every buyer in January.

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

OK I lied...This is the last one of the year.

Savvy buyers actively looking for a home to buy are in the driver's seat in the Twin Cities housing market. The supply of homes for sale continues to set records, with new listings for the week ending December 22 rising above the same week last year by 17.2 percent. Approximately 51 percent of these properties are re-lists that have already been on the market in 2007—a common ratio during the holiday season. Pending sales declined by 9.3 percent for the same time comparison. This is an improvement over the lackluster numbers seen last week.

HAPPY
NEW
YEAR!

"Champagne for my real friends...real pain for my sham friends."
-Tom Waits

Weekly Market Activity Report

Here's the Last One of the Year:

As the year winds to a close, the supply of homes for sale remains plentiful, with 28,651 homes on the market in the region—an increase of 14.5 percent over this time last year. For the week ending December 15, there were 1,213 new listings added to the market, approximately half of which are re-lists that have already been placed on the market at least once in 2007. This is an increase of 8.0 percent in new listing activity compared to the same week last year; newly signed purchase agreements (pending sales) were 27.0 percent behind.

Reasons for Hope?

It's been a challenging year for everyone in the Real Estate profession, Buyers, Sellers, Mortgage Brokers, Title Closers, Inspectors and on and on. I have seen a lot of my associates and friends really struggle to get by, myself included, in this changing marketplace. I have to believe that things will turn around, eventually. There are signs of hope: lower interest rates, reduction in inventory, better pricing. 2008 is unlikely to be a year of total rebound but I do think we will continue to see signs of a recovery. In the meantime, like you, I am thankful for my family and friends, who are always there in times of crisis. This year, more than ever, I wish them, and you, a very

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

Weekly Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report

Gather 'Round the Festivus Pole!

The Twin Cities housing market has entered its annual winter holiday pause. New listings have been minimal, yet total inventory of homes for sale remains at record levels and the number of sellers continues to far outweigh the number of buyers. Conservative lending standards and decreased consumer confidence seem to be keeping home buyers away despite low mortgage rates, motivated sellers, improved housing affordability and great housing stock.

Over the last three months, newly signed purchase agreements have declined by 20.0 percent from the same period in 2006 and 34.3 percent since 2005. Meanwhile, new listings have declined by only 1.8 percent. The number of homes for sale has dropped 5,000 units in the last 12 weeks but remains 12.9 percent higher than this time last year.

The forecast calls for improved buyer activity, but it may take a year or two of gradual increases before comparisons to today's buying market are quantifiable.

CLICK HERE for the entire report.

December Market Update

Visions of Sugar Plums Dance in Buyer's Heads...

Activity in real estate tends to remain slower during the busy holiday season as families focus on spending time together and plans are made for travel and holiday traditions. In preparation for the upcoming year, many people will use this time to begin thinking about home remodels, updates and getting their home ready for sale. Homes priced from $250,000 - $500,000 are currently moving better than any other price points in the market, and properties priced in the upper bracket continue to remain on the market longer. However, it’s important to note that homes continue to sell when they’re staged well and priced below the competing inventory.

We expect inventory levels to continue correcting to the number of buyers available in 2008 and we anticipate an ongoing slow change in the market throughout next year and into 2009. While credit standards are tighter, the market will continue to present great opportunities for buyers.

Always remember that real estate is local. Just like we don’t access national weather forecasts when we’re dressing for the day, we shouldn’t rely on national real estate reports to give us accurate information about our local markets. While national trends are important for economists to assess the economy, they are not all that useful in determining the metrics of a local market. A REALTOR® will always take into consideration many things when determining the value of a home, including the local competing inventory, location and nearby amenities.


Here's a few more interesting bits of info:

• According to the National Association of REALTORs® (NAR), 2007 is on target to be the fifth best year on record for existing home sales (units).
  

• Our market’s average home selling price is $266,000, down slightly (-.6 percent) compared to last year. We expect more price adjustments of 2 – 3 percent in 2008.

• Builders are pricing inventory at or below existing residential, which is anywhere between a 10 – 20 percent drop in pricing. New construction inventory has declined nearly 20 percent this year. This is good news for thinning out the number of homes for sale, which, combined with the average selling price coming down, indicates that we’re poised for a slow, steady market comeback.
  

• Homes priced from $250,000 - $500,000 are currently moving better than any other price points in the market.

• Upper-bracket properties continue to remain on the market longer.